China Watch: The answers are in our grasp

What does the future hold for Australia was up for discussion on Macrobusiness this morningtea-leaves2

A Glass Pyramid operative left the following as a comment on that article.

The tea leaves in my tea bag tell a different story.

Slowly people are waking up to the core of the problem – unregulated privatised public monetary systems and international capital flows.

As they do they will realise that the immigration and trade in goods in services issues are symptoms of the damage caused by the core of the problem. Fix the core problem and much of the mutant immigration and trade/services flow issues will lose their heat.

Trade and immigration desire is unbalanced because relative exchange rates are distorted by unproductive capital flows and those distortions are driving massive inequality and insecurity across the globe. The biggest being the international trade in US treasuries but our local varieties – sale of govt bonds off shore, existing property mortgage related borrowing offshore, mere transfer of title to assets etc – are no better.

International capital flows are being used as a tool of geopolitical management whereby the US props up the economies of its allies by allowing them to buy treasuries and drive down their exchange rates. Dollar recycling in the form of US treasury purchases is the core of the post 1960s global system. All it costs is a bunch of worker jobs in the US – thus why Trump is finding an eager blue collar bloc. They are paying the price for deal offered US friendlies.

Problem is China is no ally but the attempt was made – to bind it into the same ‘friendlies’ system and bring it to heel – and it has failed.

That is why tensions are rising.

The US is finding China is too big and too Chinese to strap into the old dollar recycling management model. It is screwing with domestic politics as too many US citizens are being fried by the deal. A bit like what France is finding with Germany in the Eurozone.

Is change pie in the sky cloud cuckoo thinking?

Nope – it is happening.

China is well aware of the price of being tied to the US Treasury market and is working flat out to escape its gravitational pull. It was tolerated while the really great leap forward in industrialisation was achieved.  Now that it has made the leap it is time for China to wind down its engagement with the US treasury model. Preferably by championing an end to the use of unproductive international capital flows for trade manipulation, speculation and geopolitical purposes.

If China leads the way, others will follow as they start to understand the price they are and have been paying for being tied to privatised monetary systems and deregulated capital flows.

What to do?

Start winding down ALL unproductive international capital flow transactions to the absolute minimum.

Restrict to a minimum private bank public money creation powers with a view to complete elimination if necessary (i.e. because anything less than a complete prohibition will leave a door open for bank lobbyists to get back their exorbitant privileges etc).

Every country can move in this direction right now by unilaterally prohibiting unproductive capital inflows and doing as much as they can to limit unproductive capital outflows from their economies.

Do I expect Australia to lead the way?

Nope – we are too used to clutching the skirts of the UK and the US and running the place like a branch office.

Categories: Macrobusiness

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